ARE WE MEANT TO BE 100 YEARS OR MORE OLD?

In this century the human life span may rise as high as 120 years. The implications are almost unbelievable. Over the past hundred years a silent revolution has occurred; people in the industrialized world have gained 25 years of life, thanks largely to reduction of deaths at childbirth and infancy, and control of diseases associated with old age. This nearly equals life expectancy advances over the preceding 5,000 years. In many countries, the 85-plus age group is the most rapidly growing. Prevention and elimination of disease along with control over the aging process itself could push our life spans from a world average of 66 years today to closer to 110 or 120 years. But our enhanced life spans do not come without a price. Societies are seeing their cultural, political and economic orders put to the test. Among the most basic questions facing us are: Who will be responsible for the financial support of the aged, the state or the individual? Will it lead to economic stagnation? Will the aged be a politically powerful minority? Will we also be able to maintain quality of life, or are we doomed to pass our later years in sickness, frailty and financial uncertainty?

In 1920, a 10-year-old in the US only had a 40 per cent chance of having two of his or her possible four grandparents alive. Today, that figure is 80 per cent. In many ways, life is improving for the aged. Now the age is closer to 81. Today, older people in industrialized countries also have more choices about how they live: assisted living, home care or community-based care, for example. The United States is leading the way in a profit-oriented, managed care system, which emphasizes primary care, disease prevention and monitoring of distribution. However, the US is not going far enough, nor moving rapidly enough, given the trajectory of old age. Today also U.S. pension funds amount to $2.7 trillion. This money helps provide capital for investment in production of goods and services. Overall, in the US, pension funds account for a quarter of all capital formation.

Politically, the elderly will become a more powerful group. In the decade beginning from 2020, they will constitute 20 per cent of the US population and as much as 30 per cent of the electorate. Since people are living longer, should they not work longer as well? We cannot afford to have so many people idle. Passage of the Age Discrimination Act in 1988 was a step forward, as it no longer made retirement dependent on age itself. There will be profound social, economic and political consequences of the aging revolution, no matter how old or young you are now, in all world regions.