WILL BIRD FLU BECOME A PANDEMIC?

The highly pathogenic Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 is an emerging avian influenza virus that has been causing global concern as a potential pandemic threat. It is often referred to simply as "bird flu" or "avian influenza" even though it is only one subtype of avian influenza- causing virus. All known viruses that cause influenza in birds belong to the species: Influenza A virus. All subtypes (but not all strains of all subtypes) of Influenza A virus are adapted to birds, which is why for many purposes avian flu virus is the Influenza A virus (note that the "A" does not stand for "avian"). H5N1 has evolved into a flu virus strain that infects more species than any previously known flu virus strain, is deadlier than any previously known flu virus strain, and continues to evolve, becoming both more widespread and more deadly causing a leading expert on avian flu to publish an article titled "The world is teetering on the edge of a pandemic that could kill a large fraction of the human population".

Since the first H5N1 outbreak occurred in 1997, there has been an increasing number of HPAI H5N1 bird-to-human transmissions leading to clinically severe and fatal human infections. However, because there is a significant species barrier that exists between birds and humans, the virus does not easily cross over to humans, and currently there is no evidence that human to human transmission is occurring. Although millions of birds have become infected with the virus since its discovery, 206 humans have died from the H5N1 in twelve countries according to WHO data as of November 2007.

Current research in Spain has shown that flu vaccines already in use seem to provide some protection from H5N1. Does that mean we are safe from a pandemic? Scientists and epidemiologists would say…not necessarily, but we need more evidence.